Doom and also Gloom

I wouldn't exactly say I'm a fan of entropy. 'Fan' would suggest that I somehow, I dunno, root for it. It's just that I believe in entropy, and not just because it's a set law of thermodynamics and therefore 'exists' in a way that few things can claim to exist. So while I don't jump for joy when I see something that deserves to fall apart, fall apart, I do feel a little comforted knowing that the universe is kicking along the same as it always has, no matter how much optimism we fabricate.

To that end, I'm looking at the world right now and trying hard to ignore the facts, but ultimately, I gotta call it...the world really is coming to an end. Something very big is about to happen. Everything going on right now has that eerie, 'calm before the storm' feel to it. And even then, it's not that calm. Let's look at some of the highlights:

1. Political division in the US is deepening, with small bursts of violence starting to appear. This will ramp up as we approach the 2012 election campaign. This will have ramifications for the rest of the world. The right wing will get more desperate, the left will get more tongue-tied, and the lunatic fringe on both sides will be the only voices heard. But it'll be the fringe on the right that gets their way, and riskier investments and ventures will proliferate, as the sunny Tea Partiers insist on American adventurism as a means to get out of crisis. You'll see American banks go through a rapid series of booms, busts and utter disasters, until the lunatic right's suggestions of a gold standard start to look reasonable. Then...

2. The Chinese will start selling their 900 billion dollars worth of US Treasury Bonds to whomever will buy them, which will be no-one. The Japanese, with a similar amount, will start to liquefy their exposure to the dangerously insane looking Americans. The greenback's standing as the world's reserve currency will implode, and currency markets will go into freefall. At that point, there will be literally no safe investment anywhere in the world. Then...

3. The stock market will bottom out. The Dow will sink past 5000 before settling. Then...

4. Some major disaster will hit a US city. Likely to be a flood, earthquake or Godzilla attack (GODZILLA LOSE SHIRT IN EQUITIES! BLAAARGH!!). Then...

5. A War. Maybe Iran will finally lose it and launch a missile into Israel. or vise versa. Or the North Koreans launch into South Korea. Or Iraq will come undone. or Afghanistan. Then...

6. Major talks. The greenback will be stabilized with the printing of more money, which will be overblown by the public, who have pushed the price of Gold past $1800/oz. Then Gold crashes back down to $300/oz. Meanwhile, those with a steady hand will avoid the rush to panic and keep their money in banks. Then...

7. The first Iceland-esque instance of US consumers going to withdraw money from (probably a Citi) ATM, and not being able to, will occur. Panic. Run on the banks. People will get 5c to the dollar. Which is now worth 2c because of the inflation.

8. Riots.

9. The Aussie housing bubble will explode, sending hot egg into everyone's face. Turns out the biggest backer of Aussie mortgage debt was...

10. Goldman Sachs. But the biggest better AGAINST Aussie mortgage debt was...

11. Goldman Sachs. They're fine, but they accept a bail out anyway, even though the US treasury has no money. They're offered treasury bonds, but Goldman actually refuses to take them, which leads to...

12. Everyone else sells their US treasuries. The US can't print the money fast enough. Hyper-inflation. Mass hoarding. More Riots. Someone gets shot.

13. ?

In all of this, I plan on getting married and out of debt, and hopefully getting an opportunity to start my writing career. Of course, the whole world will be in utter chaos at that point, and I'll be drafted into the New United States Army, and called back to the US for basic training. Lisa and I will jump ship on the way, finding safe haven on a coconut festooned island, where we will establish our own nation, with an economy based on coconuts and coconut derivatives. We will have children and die 150 years later, by which time the slaves will be re-freed in the New United States of Atlantica, a nation comprising of the remains of the US East Coast and the UK. We won't be there to see the bubble bubble, when risky bets on the rising prices of bubbles will destroy the fishbak, the reserve underwater-world currency.

It gets hazy from there.